The UK residential market is showing early signs that its recent downturn may be finding a floor. The RICS UK Residential Market Survey for May 2026, published in June 2026, records a net balance of 34% of property professionals reporting falling buyer inquiries, but this was the first month since January that demand had not deteriorated further. The agreed sales balance held unchanged at 37% reporting falls, signalling the pace of decline is no longer intensifying. RICS head of market research Tarrant Parsons described key indicators as broadly holding steady, while cautioning it would be premature to call this a recovery. For building and architecture leaders, stabilisation is the commercially important signal.

Read alongside Ireland's strong price data, the survey confirms the residential pipeline across the island remains structurally active. Three dynamics carry particular weight: Northern Ireland's continued price growth against the wider UK trend, 12-month forward sales expectations turning neutral, and a tightening rental market sustaining the case for new supply.

Northern Ireland stands apart from the UK average. While a net balance of 35% of professionals nationally reported price falls, Northern Ireland recorded firm price growth, consistent across every RICS survey since late 2024. New buyer enquiries in Northern Ireland remain among the highest of any UK region, underpinned by a housing deficit that continues to outpace completions. For architects and developers, the fundamental demand signal is intact and the viability environment is stronger than the UK headline suggests.

In the Republic, the CSO Residential Property Price Index for March 2026 shows national prices rising 6.5% annually, with a median transaction price of EUR 390,461. Prices outside Dublin rose 7.2%, led by the Midlands at 13.4%. Apartments increased 9.1% nationally. Transaction volumes rose 14% in March year on year, confirming buyer activity is expanding even as price growth moderates. For building and architecture firms, this is the most supportive residential pipeline environment since 2022.

Three boardroom priorities follow. First, treat the RICS stabilisation signal as a prompt to advance pre-contract design and planning activity, positioning schemes to mobilise when buyer confidence recovers. Second, Zoopla rental data showing UK rents rising 5% annually in lower-cost areas reinforces the investment case for affordable residential product, a segment practices should position in client conversations. Third, anchor pipeline confidence to the 12-month RICS sales expectations balance of +2% and Ireland's rising transaction volumes.

The May RICS survey is not a recovery declaration, but it is a stabilisation signal that matters. In Northern Ireland and Ireland, where price growth is positive and transaction volumes are expanding, the residential pipeline is proving its resilience. For building and architecture leaders, the floor forming in the UK market and sustained Irish momentum together point to a sector entering the second half of 2026 with more structural support than headline figures imply.

(The views expressed by the writer are his/her own and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of BusinessRiver.)